'He's positioned to win'

Mark Kirk, the Republican congressman representing the North Shore of Illinois, stands a strong chance at winning the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Barack Obama, explains Thom Serafin in this appearance on Fox Chicago News.

Kirk, a five-term congressman, on Monday announced his Republican bid for the Senate seat currently held by Roland Burris, a Democrat who does not plan to seek election to the seat to which disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich appointed him.

“His chances are excellent,” Serafin says of Kirk. “He’s positioned to win. He just needs to be able to run through this primary without too much conservative opposition.”

Serafin notes that Kirk has sided with liberals on certain social issues. In a primary election, Kirk potentially could face strong criticism from the GOP’s right wing for this stance. But for now, Serafin says that Kirk appears strong heading into the primary.

"Right now, based on what national polls are showing, Republicans are making headway into this off-year election,” Serafin says, noting that as a rule the party of the president tends to suffer in non-presidential elections.

Kirk was one of a few Republicans who sided with Democrats in voting for cap-and-trade legislation to regulate carbon emissions. Critics say the legislation, backed by Obama, will lead to increased energy costs.

Serafin says he was perplexed by Kirk’s vote on cap-and-trade. He notes that nearly half of GOP primary voters are in downstate Illinois. In southern Illinois, a region whose economy historically depended on work associated with coal mining, Serafin says that Kirk will have much explaining to do.

Still, the GOP establishment is behind Kirk.

“He’s got a lot of the big shots,” Serafin says. “He’s got a lot of the organization Republicans with him.”